• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0464

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 29 03:22:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290322
    SPC MCD 290322=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0464
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1022 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Central and Northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 290322Z - 290515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
    north-central and northeast Arkansas over the next few hours. A
    tornado threat along with large hail and wind damage will be
    possible. New weather watch issuance may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Little Rock showed a
    cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms just to the east of Fort
    Smith. This cluster is located along an axis of moderate instability
    where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range.
    The axis of instability extends eastward across north-central
    Arkansas to near the Mississippi River. Wind shear along this
    corridor is characterized by strong veering winds with height in the
    low to mid-levels and 50 knots of southwest flow around 6 km above
    ground level. This will be favorable for a tornado threat with
    supercells that track eastward near the instability axis. The threat
    is expected to develop to the east of WW 121. For that reason, a new
    watch may need to be issued.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u1wtoW5aB7gXU4gxFQMNqTjPtDCVDIOetJt9MOQxnYE9LXM9AIQlBjRtJIrJ2YgcXKhUDrjn$=
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    LAT...LON 35999014 35598998 35049022 34679078 34629192 34569288
    34619342 34879368 35239369 35739341 36019288 36119228
    36109124 36079058 35999014=20

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