• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0463

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 29 02:20:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 290220
    SPC MCD 290219=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0463
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0919 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...northeast
    Texas...and northwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...

    Valid 290219Z - 290415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather continues across WW 121.
    Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across the
    Arklatex region over the next few hours. Isolated severe storms are
    expected to continue across portions of central Oklahoma and
    north-central Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar trends have shown an increase in
    storm coverage across the Arklatex region, likely the result of
    increasing isentropic ascent between 850-700 mb. Storms will
    gradually become organized as they begin to mature in an environment characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-60 knots of effective
    bulk shear. Despite some boundary-layer stabilization, effective SRH
    values remain elevated between 200-400 m2/s2 from northeast TX into
    eastern OK/western AR. KSRX VWP observations support this idea with
    nearly 500 m2s2 0-1 km SRH noted, and a nearby supercell has taken
    on transient low-level rotation. As such, the tornado potential
    should continue over the next few hours for all of WW 121.=20

    To the west, isolated supercells have developed along a weak cold
    frontal boundary from central OK into northern TX. Hail up to 2
    inches has been reported with some of this activity (particularly in
    the OKC metro area). This activity will likely persist as it
    translates eastward into a most unstable air mass, and will continue
    to pose a severe hail and wind risk. While one or two additional
    cells are possible, storm coverage should remain isolated enough to
    negate the need for an new watch.

    ..Moore.. 04/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t3T3Qqfj8H3jlRl2b4JI1kJV32vqIC2tUevRLPxG90ItFjckCtc7Nx_Ry9QLlRG_fyN3fPqi$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32869769 34189677 35079594 35939476 35929388 35619356
    34829339 33999367 33199398 32749444 32489522 32339672
    32429744 32869769=20

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