• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0458

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 23:01:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282301
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282301=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-290100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0458
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0601 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 282301Z - 290100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An uptick in convection is noted across southeast Oklahoma
    and may continue for the next few hours. A severe wind, and perhaps
    a tornado, risk may evolve with these storms. Trends will be
    monitored, and a watch is possible in the coming hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent IR imagery and lightning trends have shown a
    notable intensification in convection within a warm frontal zone
    over southeast OK. This is likely the result of increasing lift as a
    subtle mid-level impulse propagates over the region. Although storms
    may initially be elevated along the frontal zone, decreasing MLCIN
    may allow storms to become rooted in the boundary-layer with time.
    As this occurs, further storm intensification is possible as 200-300
    m2s2 effective SRH helps organize and strengthen mesocyclones. This
    may also support a tornado threat as storms move towards western AR
    for the next 1-2 hours. However, recent RAP guidance suggests 0-3 km
    hodographs may weaken after 01 UTC as the 850 mb jet shifts to the
    east into central AR. Additionally, storm motions along the
    initiating boundary will increase the probability for destructive
    storm interactions and gradual upscale growth. Nonetheless, any
    supercell that can become established within this regime will pose a
    risk for at least marginally severe hail and damaging winds. Trends
    will continue to be monitored, and a watch is possible if a more
    robust severe/tornado threat becomes apparent.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tB9iLuO92MQC3R6MOv1YrHyDVDaxsIkh_RUMBisdHCmG5KqEdfWbbNnUNKlq4yID-7-SqSpa$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34109692 34549690 35159606 35569507 35809413 35379353
    34889344 34249360 33789400 33659493 33659605 33769680
    34109692=20



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