• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0457

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 22:41:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282241
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282241=20
    TXZ000-290045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0457
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0541 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 120...

    Valid 282241Z - 290045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue through early this evening
    across parts of southwest Texas. Very large hail, wind damage and a
    tornado or two will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery out of Del Rio shows a cluster
    of severe storms located from just southeast of Del Rio extending
    westward into the far northern Mexico. The storms will continue to
    move eastward along a corridor of moderate instability over the next
    few hours. The RAP is showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range
    from near Del Rio extending eastward into the southern Texas Hill
    Country. The RAP suggests that 700-500 mb lapse rates are near 7.0
    C/km. This combined 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 kt range, evident
    on the WSR-88D VWP, will be favorable for supercells with large
    hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
    possible with the stronger updrafts. As low-level flow strengthens
    early this evening, a tornado threat is expected to develop. Wind
    damage can also be expected along the leading edge or within the
    stronger downdrafts.

    ..Broyles.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s_sSOmVrz9-yWLZPGDSIzrlf0bBDpJTWV2mhjkiXao3FKWlJhGDAsa_HNKKxG1K8l-miv1Bt$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29520117 29190128 28980103 28670016 28759916 29379851
    29829836 30069877 30029982 29830048 29520117=20



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