• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0456

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 22:25:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282225
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282225=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-290030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0456
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Western Kentucky and extreme northwest Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

    Valid 282225Z - 290030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail remain possible with a cluster of
    storms moving across far western Kentucky and portions of extreme
    northwest Tennessee.

    DISCUSSION...A linear cluster of storms continues to slowly push
    eastward towards the Paducah, KY area. Although KPAH velocity data
    suggests a loosely organized cold pool has developed, IR imagery and
    MRMS echo top trends reveal robust individual updrafts embedded
    within the line. These pulses have been, and will continue to be,
    most common along the southern flank of the line along the TN/KY
    border where a weak baroclinic zone/instability gradient is located.
    The expectation is that this cluster of storms will continue to move
    eastward in the coming hours, and stronger updraft pulses along the
    southern half of the line will pose a severe hail threat. KPAH
    recently sampled nearly 40 knots of 0-3 km bulk shear ahead of the
    line, suggesting that further organization of the cold pool (and an
    increasing damaging wind threat) is possible. However, this will
    likely be dependent on more balanced intensification along the
    entire line. Regardless, an isolated wind threat will persist with
    any stronger updraft pulses. Although the tornado potential
    generally appears low, 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (sampled by KPAH)
    indicates that a tornado or two remain possible - especially on the
    southern flank along the baroclinic zone where surface winds are
    slightly more backed.

    ..Moore.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s7gB5kXkeSJcJuCtW57a2MVuMI_VryR8iZLoHmeg0W9OODCyxoDyZSPJD-IiPMacoUhiWFQC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36308967 37108928 37438878 37648802 37638711 37188681
    36728692 36338724 36208789 36108872 36158942 36308967=20



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