• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0455

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 20:41:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282040=20
    TXZ000-282215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0455
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 119...

    Valid 282040Z - 282215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 119 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest short-term severe threat will exist with a
    supercell capable of producing 2+ inch hail. A tornado also remains
    possible. Additional storms may form along a stalled surface
    boundary.

    DISCUSSION...A severe supercell moving from Runnels/Taylor counties
    into Callahan/Coleman counties in central TX will continue to pose a
    threat for large to very large (2+ inch) hail in the short term.
    Surface observations to the south/southeast of this ongoing storm
    indicate surface temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s,
    while dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 60s. Accordingly,
    instability is maximized near this supercell per latest mesoanalysis
    estimates, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Low-level flow appears
    fairly week based on recent VWPs from KDYX, but it does strengthen
    some with eastward extent into central TX. A tornado remains
    possible in the short term with any supercell that can remain
    sustained, but large hail will likely remain the primary severe risk
    for the next hour or two. Additional storms may form along a stalled
    outflow boundary that is draped across this region, particularly
    where this boundary intersects a surface dryline near San Angelo TX.
    Any additional convection that develops will likely become severe
    quickly and pose at a very large hail threat.

    ..Gleason.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r3CS-XpcbF6wiuy6tYbQwroPtj2cO1PhIUzgOwQM9lWPSB6SLjr1zzjN9a2Hh-2XKmY7_J-P$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31619919 31619992 31340026 31330047 31560046 32280018
    32549965 32639925 32519846 32239838 31839855 31619919=20



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