• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0454

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 20:30:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282029=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-282200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0454
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of extreme southeast Missouri...extreme
    southern Illinois and far western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

    Valid 282029Z - 282200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some severe threat remains across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 0118 over the next few hours. A couple damaging gusts are
    expected be the primary concern.

    DISCUSSION...The remnants of an earlier QLCS persist across western
    portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0118 in the form of a loosely
    organized multicellular cluster which is about to cross the Missouri
    Bootheel. These storms are traversing a relatively diffuse west-east
    oriented baroclinic zone, characterized by 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE and
    40-50 kts of effective bulk shear as shown by the latest
    Mesoanalysis. The 1948Z KPAH VWP also shows modest low-level shear
    (i.e. just over 150 m2/s2 0-3km SRH) with a nearly straight
    hodograph. As such, the multicellular cluster is expected to
    continue across the watch over the next few hours. Nonetheless, the
    storms are propagating away from the low-level jet axis, which is
    currently established across parts of the Mid South, as well as the
    stronger mid-level flow. Questions remain regarding the overall
    coverage of damaging winds. Nonetheless, the aforementioned
    CAPE/shear parameter space suggests that at least a couple damaging
    gusts and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tf5RfK2ggFMWKq4k5bbMKj0wtCBAgdGMKVKkAZb87zEnGgjzhnCQ6tFg49eBzGKpatTrqodz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 36429076 37109034 37568971 37748838 37798764 37668717
    37308686 36878680 36598719 36418875 36429076=20



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