• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0451

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 17:33:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281733
    SPC MCD 281733=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0451
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Missouri...far southwest Illinois...extreme southwest Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 281733Z - 281830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch #0117,
    and some threat for severe may persist downstream of the watch over
    the next couple of hours. A couple of damaging gusts or a brief
    tornado remain the primary threats. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    issuance is likely shortly.

    DISCUSSION...A QLCS persists roughly along a Texas/Shannon/Oregon
    County line across southeast Missouri, with MRMS mosaic low-level
    rotation track data showing modest circulations in progress. Ahead
    of the QLCS, surface temperatures in the mid 70s, with near 70F
    dewpoints, support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, evident via the latest Mesoanalysis. While modest forcing and aforementioned instability
    along a broad confluence/baroclinic zone is expected to support
    downstream propagation of the QLCS, effective SRH has been gradually
    weakening and is expected to continue waning over the next few
    hours. While a brief tornado or two remain possible this afternoon,
    damaging gusts are expected to remain the primary threat. As such, a
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely shortly.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vmQhldJF_clBcJQrKq6zmtfjm49awJmb-Z_UWfTWKFzIFebPvFX6bQArGyhYWUsbz5x1xX06$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36469119 37239119 37509088 37778994 37798903 37548860
    37118850 36678905 36488962 36389073 36469119=20

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