• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0449

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 15:57:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281557
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281556=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-281700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0449
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1056 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern MO and extreme northern AR

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...

    Valid 281556Z - 281700Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117 continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and tornado threat may continue
    in the short term across Tornado Watch 117.

    DISCUSSION...A bowing complex with a history of producing multiple
    damaging wind reports across southern MO earlier this morning
    appears to be struggling to maintain its intensity based on recent
    radar imagery. A downstream surface observation at KUNO in
    south-central MO shows an air temperature only in the upper 60s.
    Although sufficient low-level moisture is in place ahead of the
    ongoing convection, weak instability with MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg
    may continue to hamper updraft intensity and longevity this morning.
    Still, the low-level flow from the KLZK VWP remains favorable for
    some rotation with any segment of the bowing complex that can remain
    surface based. Accordingly, an isolated severe/damaging wind and
    tornado threat may continue in the short term across remaining valid
    portions of Tornado Watch 117. It remains unclear whether this
    convection in southern MO and far northern AR will remain
    sufficiently organized into the afternoon to warrant additional
    downstream watch issuance.

    ..Gleason.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qu8xZI3pi0sYJr_stkN2FhwXJnceasx_Bb7rAkyZUeaP7qJ5uBnzkP3s7-CIfRXeyQaMZohD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36589102 36409112 36309266 36569263 36809272 37089283
    37309280 37419253 37429157 37319106 36589102=20



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