Mesoscale Discussion 0449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021
Areas affected...Portions of southern MO and extreme northern AR
Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...
Valid 281556Z - 281700Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and tornado threat may continue
in the short term across Tornado Watch 117.
DISCUSSION...A bowing complex with a history of producing multiple
damaging wind reports across southern MO earlier this morning
appears to be struggling to maintain its intensity based on recent
radar imagery. A downstream surface observation at KUNO in
south-central MO shows an air temperature only in the upper 60s.
Although sufficient low-level moisture is in place ahead of the
ongoing convection, weak instability with MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg
may continue to hamper updraft intensity and longevity this morning.
Still, the low-level flow from the KLZK VWP remains favorable for
some rotation with any segment of the bowing complex that can remain
surface based. Accordingly, an isolated severe/damaging wind and
tornado threat may continue in the short term across remaining valid
portions of Tornado Watch 117. It remains unclear whether this
convection in southern MO and far northern AR will remain
sufficiently organized into the afternoon to warrant additional
downstream watch issuance.
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