• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0448

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 14:26:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281426
    SPC MCD 281425=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0448
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0925 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of north-central TX...southern/eastern
    OK...and northwestern AR

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 116...

    Valid 281425Z - 281530Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 116 continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues this morning, but the
    need for additional watch issuance remains unclear.

    DISCUSSION...Within a broad precipitation shield, embedded
    thunderstorms have shown signs of occasional organization/rotation
    this morning from parts of north-central TX into southern/eastern OK
    and northwestern AR. Instability remains fairly weak across this
    region, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg downstream of ongoing
    convection. Even with this limited instability, the presence of rich
    low-level moisture and a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet may
    support continued storm organization with the strongest updrafts.
    The overall severe threat has remained rather isolated so far this
    morning, and this trend should continue for the next few hours
    before potentially increasing again later this afternoon. At this
    point, it remains unclear whether another watch issuance will be
    needed to replace Tornado Watch 116, which is scheduled to expire at
    15Z (10 AM CDT). Regardless, radar trends will continue to be
    closely monitored.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!srw9yKx5IDc-J2jI_KkraWFEmNgzYPu06imWZclw_3jfWd3zqFkObIe8mL7-x5ocT9ptWeEv$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32719797 33549778 35079617 36349384 36399347 35779374
    32809752 32719797=20

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