• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0447

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 13:53:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281352
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281352=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-281545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0447
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0852 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern AR and southern MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281352Z - 281545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some severe threat may continue this morning with a
    cluster of storms moving eastward, including the potential for
    damaging winds and a tornado. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms has developed
    this morning across northwestern AR and southwestern MO. VWPs from
    KLZK/KSRX indicate around 30-35 kt of 0-1 km shear is present, along
    with a favorable veering/strengthening wind profile with height
    through mid levels. Low-level rotation has been noted with a couple circulations within the line. An isolated tornado threat may
    continue through the morning across parts of southern MO and
    northern AR where rich low-level moisture, a weakly unstable
    airmass, and strong shear at low levels can support surface-based
    storms. Given the linear nature of the ongoing convection, damaging
    winds may be the primary severe threat. Filtered diurnal heating
    through a cloud deck downstream of this ongoing activity should
    support a gradual increase in boundary-layer instability over the
    next couple of hours. Although convective evolution remains somewhat
    uncertain this morning, downstream watch issuance may be needed if
    storms maintain their current intensity.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oGxq8I-g7SPO0WDxCphl9oCcdZBFqxeyJDdGlmTqj_tsQGnD2dbwEUxaRG7kR9HKPynITC0f$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 35369122 35249244 35359364 35959328 36859321 36929183
    36849004 36178978 35549013 35369122=20



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