• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0446

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 11:36:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281135
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281135=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-281430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0446
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0635 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...parts of northwest Texas into eastern Oklahoma and
    northwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 116...

    Valid 281135Z - 281430Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 116 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather including a tornado or two
    continues within tornado watch 116.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered storms persist from the Abilene TX area
    northeastward into far northwest AR, with a supercell near the OK/AR
    border in Adair County OK. Meanwhile, a stronger storm cluster was
    also located over Shackelford County TX, on the southern end of the
    watch. In between, a large region of rain and thunderstorms covers
    much of central and southern OK, and extending south of the Red
    River. While this intermediate region is rain cooled, mid to upper
    60s F dewpoints still yield around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE per SFCOA
    analysis.

    This early-day warm-advection regime is likely to continue into the
    late morning as a strong low-level jet maintains lift and theta-e
    advection. Much of the watch still contains effective SRH on the
    order of 200-300 m2/s2, favoring an occasional supercell. A brief
    tornado remains possible, along with localized wind damage or hail.

    ..Jewell.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ueV3Q228QALpx7MpuvcNbaZVaVwTPnaluN2h0JKnMWhcuITrR06uw5EmfH73EFwfVBHW6RBJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32299830 32290037 36199583 36189367 32299830=20



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