• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0445

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 06:38:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280638
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280638=20
    TXZ000-280845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0445
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0138 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

    Areas affected...parts of western Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...

    Valid 280638Z - 280845Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe storms over southwest Texas are likely to persist,
    and may increase in intensity in a few hours over parts of northwest
    Texas. Damaging winds, large hail, and eventually a tornado risk are
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an outflow boundary (nearly
    stationary) from west of GLE to near ABI, with fresh outflow moving
    across Sterling/Reagan/Upton Counties. Area VWPs indicate a strong
    low-level jet which will aid air-mass recovery over northwest TX
    later tonight.=20

    A zone of greater surface theta-e currently extends from near ABI
    southwestward through SJT and DRT, with 68-70 F dewpoints. With
    time, ongoing cells west of ABI may incorporate the more unstable
    air mass, especially if the pre-existing outflow boundary begins to
    lift north. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to favor
    fast-moving cells or bows capable of damaging wind and hail. Greater
    effective SRH on the warm side of the outflow boundary could support
    a tornado risk, with 300+ m2/s2 present. Given currently observed
    storm motions, cells may move into the better air even if the
    boundary remains stationary.

    ..Jewell.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vHGlSooFbNXBJo8UTOvpRb8PAaqSxPysRo9ZPpkhs-CkwyheP8ircMG4_nNDzI3qOkBHbqxu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31460235 32050149 32450100 32770002 33109877 32899830
    32359833 31829889 31640004 31380128 31270192 31280228
    31460235=20



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