• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0444

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 03:40:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280340
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280339=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-280545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0444
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1039 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Pecos Valley into Texas South Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...

    Valid 280339Z - 280545Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A period of rapid thunderstorm development and
    intensification is possible around the Midland area by Midnight-1 AM
    CDT, if not before. This may include the evolution of a supercell
    or two, which could pose a risk for large, damaging hail, along with potentially damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...A south-southeasterly low-level jet is in the process
    of strengthening to the east of the Pecos River. Downstream of the
    primary short wave trough now turning east-southeastward near the
    Southwestern international border area, this is forecast to continue
    into the 05-07Z time frame. At the same time, it appears that
    another more modest preceding perturbation may emerge from the
    northern Mexican Plateau, and contribute to increasing forcing for
    ascent across the Pecos Valley into South Plains vicinity.=20

    A general increase in convection is already underway across this
    region, focused along the dryline and the southern fringe of a zone
    of stronger warm advection (around 700 mb). Inhibition associated
    with warm elevated mixed-layer air may still be suppressing
    convective development, but various model output suggests that this
    may weaken considerably during the next few hours. The increasing
    large-scale ascent, coupled with deepening boundary-layer moisture
    return beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, may support a period of
    rapid thunderstorm development and intensification by 05-06Z, if not
    before. Initially this may include supercells around the Midland
    area, before activity tends to consolidate and grow upscale while
    propagating east-northeastward near the Interstate 20 corridor.

    ..Kerr.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oLEI5g5DVD2RxRgrcNsskP05df4jQA60u2kygC4wTBn2rr76mkSVC_I5rRodrn_Zx2gtTfGk$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32030307 32700227 33290085 32270080 31620204 30570308
    32030307=20



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