• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0443

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 02:32:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280231
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280231=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-280330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0443
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0931 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114...

    Valid 280231Z - 280330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A gradual weakening trend is noted in the line of storms
    moving across northeast Kansas. However, severe hail and wind will
    remain possible for the next few hours across Watch 114.

    DISCUSSION...A convective line continues to move to the
    east/northeast across northwest KS and into far southwest NE.
    Several severe wind and hail reports have been noted with this line,
    and MRMS echo tops show stronger embedded pulses that will continue
    to pose a hail threat in the near term. Additionally, the strong
    low-level shear (around 40-50 knots of 0-3 km bulk shear per RAP
    mesoanalysis) oriented nearly orthogonal to the cold pool will
    continue to support a damaging wind risk. However, IR trends over
    the past hour have shown a gradual warming trend in cloud top
    temperatures, suggesting that the overall intensity of the line may
    be waning as it migrates towards the northern fringe of the more
    favorable instability and towards a more capped environment. In
    general, this trend is expected to continue over the next few hours
    and the severe risk will likely become confined to stronger impulses
    embedded within the line - most likely along the KS/NE state line
    where the instability/shear parameter space will remain most
    favorable for organized convection.

    ..Moore.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tDi6IUvNWJLzEQNmr6cs7wSWvqrl00o4VddXZ0J9u6FEyoJErsYwoIx-KvTvRTEnxIPS7ftE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39360197 40000204 40500197 40940125 41090018 40859948
    40249952 39699957 39249991 39220073 39230162 39360197=20



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