• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0442

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 01:24:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280124
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280124=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0442
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0824 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Iowa...Southeast Minnesota...and central
    Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 280124Z - 280330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few instances of hail and damaging wind gusts are
    possible with developing thunderstorms over the next few hours.
    However, this threat will be fairly limited, and a watch is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown a gradual increase in
    elevated convective cells along the IA/MN border within a mid-level
    warm frontal zone. Lift within this zone has gradually been
    increasing as an upstream wave approaches the region, and IR imagery
    and lightning trends indicate the recent convection is perhaps
    slightly more robust than earlier, more transient thunderstorms.
    Although deep-layer shear across the upper Midwest is favorable for
    organized convection (between 30-45 knots of effective bulk shear),
    00 UTC soundings from the region show limited MUCAPE amid poor
    mid-level lapse rates across the MN/WI region. Isentropic upglide
    along the frontal boundary is likely allowing storms to utilize more
    buoyant air to the south, but these cells may struggle to maintain
    intensity with northward extent. As a result, a somewhat narrow
    corridor should exist from the IA/MN border and across central WI
    where loosely organized storms will pose a risk for marginally
    severe hail and damaging winds. Given the limited nature of this
    threat, a watch is not expected.

    ..Moore.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qWD_2DRvU_sAlypClziOuKsaQkV-36By4QzlR552fCKWSsbmsgbmucsGo34G7YNl2vzlr3wY$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43599436 44299270 44619084 44728867 44528745 43668775
    43198781 43109055 43059379 43599436=20



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