• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0441

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 01:02:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280101
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280101=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-280230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0441
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains into southwestern
    Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113...

    Valid 280101Z - 280230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase across the
    region, with at least some signs of increasing organization. It is
    possible that this may continue into late evening, with increasing
    potential for strong surface gusts. A new severe thunderstorm watch
    will probably be issued prior to 9 PM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...A belt of 30-35 kt southerly flow at 850 mb appears to
    be contributing to a zone of focused low-level convergence along an
    axis from near Snyder, TX into areas west of Wichita Falls, TX, and
    enhanced low-level warm advection west/northwest of Wichita Falls
    into the Fort Sill, OK vicinity. Associated lift has supported an
    intensifying linear band of thunderstorms, with embedded stronger
    more discrete/supercellular structures, in the presence of strong
    deep-layer shear and instability.=20=20

    With the onset of boundary-layer cooling, the narrow corridor of
    steep low-level lapse to the east of the ongoing activity will begin
    to stabilize during the next few hours. However the southerly
    low-level jet is forecast to be maintained, with at least some
    further strengthening through 03-06Z. Increasing moisture return
    above the stabilizing boundary layer, beneath steep mid-level lapse
    rates, might be sufficient to support continuing upscale convective
    growth across parts of the Texas South Plains and Big Country into
    parts of southwestern Oklahoma this evening. If this occurs, a few
    downbursts may become increasingly possible along with strengthening
    surface cold pools, accompanied be increasing potential for strong
    surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sJj_3gWZFU2rxos_8zE_q-Gfy_XL4YvKLZ5LTg7Cz5URp2c-GI0b8k6NFhX0Uhg8lL8ooQGF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32330121 33140035 33949940 34519915 34809852 34949795
    34649735 33549800 32679897 31950042 31980094 32330121=20



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