• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0440

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 28 00:16:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280016
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280016=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-280215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0440
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0716 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southwest Nebraska...and
    Northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112...114...

    Valid 280016Z - 280215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112, 114
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue across
    far northeast Colorado and into adjacent areas of southwest Nebraska
    and northwest Kansas through the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends over the past hour have
    shown gradual upscale growth from discrete/semi-discrete storms into
    a more linear storm mode due to destructive storm interactions and conglomeration of cold pools. Velocity data from KGLD supports this
    idea with a more unified outflow boundary associated with the main
    convective cluster becoming apparent. Satellite imagery continues to
    show robust updraft pulses within the evolving line, and flash rates
    have maintained intensity as storms move into a more favorable
    thermodynamic environment. The continued organization of the cold
    pool within a strongly sheared environment (50-60 knots of effective
    bulk shear and 40 knots of 0-3 km shear) will support the potential
    for an organized wind threat, and possibly a bowing segment, as
    storms continue to move to the east/northeast through 04 UTC. While
    damaging winds will become the main threat, stronger updraft pulses
    will be capable of producing severe hail within the line. A brief
    tornado remains possible given increasing low-level helicity and
    strong low-level bulk shear (per RAP mesoanalysis and the KGLD VWP),
    but increasing SBCIN and a linear storm mode cast some uncertainty
    into the tornado potential heading into the late evening hours.

    ..Moore.. 04/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qOeAcvNwPu8Cr1J94FAIi8Cww2QPhRqWq2p8mJ9x3OGLo4U7PwpTFhoKIEjxLYqljV97Q7zy$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39000273 39730290 40370287 40940181 41290089 41150040
    40839993 40259970 39590003 39260069 38990172 39000273=20



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