Mesoscale Discussion 0439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains into southwestern
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113...
Valid 272252Z - 280045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113
SUMMARY...Additional supercell development is possible across the
region during the next few hours, which may pose the risk for large, potentially damaging hail, and a tornado or two, before tending to
evolve into an increasingly organized cluster of storms during the
7-9 PM CDT time frame.
DISCUSSION...Although a subtle mid-level perturbation may now be in
the process of migrating off to the east-northeast of the region,
the primary, much more significant short wave trough is still well
upstream. As this feature continues to dig across parts of the
lower Colorado Valley/Gulf of California vicinity, it appears that
the stronger downstream difluent mid/upper flow will remain focused
across the Texas South Plains/Northwest Texas vicinity. Beneath
this regime, boundary-layer convergence and lower/mid tropospheric
warm advection remain focused along an axis northwest of Sweetwater,
TX into areas west of Wichita Falls, TX, where new thunderstorm
development appears in the process of gradually intensifying.
In the presence of thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep
lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and CAPE on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg, at least some further erosion of mid-level
inhibition is expected to allow for rapid intensification during the
next few hours. Deep-layer and low-level shear remain supportive of supercells, before activity tends to grow upscale and organize
through the 00-02Z time frame.
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