• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0439

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 27 22:53:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272253
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272252=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-280045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0439
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0552 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains into southwestern
    Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113...

    Valid 272252Z - 280045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Additional supercell development is possible across the
    region during the next few hours, which may pose the risk for large, potentially damaging hail, and a tornado or two, before tending to
    evolve into an increasingly organized cluster of storms during the
    7-9 PM CDT time frame.

    DISCUSSION...Although a subtle mid-level perturbation may now be in
    the process of migrating off to the east-northeast of the region,
    the primary, much more significant short wave trough is still well
    upstream. As this feature continues to dig across parts of the
    lower Colorado Valley/Gulf of California vicinity, it appears that
    the stronger downstream difluent mid/upper flow will remain focused
    across the Texas South Plains/Northwest Texas vicinity. Beneath
    this regime, boundary-layer convergence and lower/mid tropospheric
    warm advection remain focused along an axis northwest of Sweetwater,
    TX into areas west of Wichita Falls, TX, where new thunderstorm
    development appears in the process of gradually intensifying.

    In the presence of thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep
    lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and CAPE on the order of
    1000-2000 J/kg, at least some further erosion of mid-level
    inhibition is expected to allow for rapid intensification during the
    next few hours. Deep-layer and low-level shear remain supportive of supercells, before activity tends to grow upscale and organize
    through the 00-02Z time frame.

    ..Kerr.. 04/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ppueNZpNGRlc2TwcgqHdcz1-CF0EhMy2F4pZhMLq5Li9y6VClcFS3mW-ovhl9WKOdclLL2uf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33390104 34140022 34699917 34869836 34609808 34219822
    33619896 32920029 32660086 32840128 33390104=20



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