• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0438

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 27 22:24:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272224
    SPC MCD 272224=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0438
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0524 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Northwest Kansas...and
    Southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112...

    Valid 272224Z - 280030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112

    SUMMARY...A severe hail and wind risk will continue for the next few
    hours and may extend into portions of northwest KS and southwest NE.
    While hail/wind will be the primary threat, a tornado or two will
    remain possible in the near term.

    DISCUSSION...Convection continues to mature across northeast CO as
    storms slowly move eastward towards the KS/NE border. Clearing skies
    and richer boundary-layer moisture across northwest KS have allowed
    instability to increase across this region to nearly 1500 J/kg
    SBCAPE, which may support an increase in intensity of the ongoing
    convection (especially within the Limon, CO to northwest KS
    corridor). East/northeasterly low-level winds are supporting
    elongated hodographs and 50-60 knots of effective bulk shear across
    this region, which should further support organized convection.
    Additionally, this backed flow along and north of a warm
    front/dryline boundary is supporting 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH
    (around 150 m2s2 0-1 km SRH per the KGLD VWP). This has been
    sufficient for a couple of brief tornadoes across the CO Plains.
    This will continue to support a tornado threat with any discrete
    convection in the near term before deeper boundary-layer mixing
    reduces low-level directional shear. Discrete storms are expected to
    gradually grow upscale via storm interactions as they move closer to
    the NE/KS border, but given the relatively limited spatial extent of
    favorable instability (possibly confined to east CO/northwest KS per
    satellite trends), the coverage of the severe threat is somewhat
    uncertain after 01 UTC. Trends will be monitored and a new watch may
    be needed in the coming hours.

    ..Moore.. 04/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oIDBFPZhfdG2vEPT56i5L2yy_WFiWfcMU53vSsnaPoqClGimQLKQ_nDF1D_XimzAJO_RcXdt$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38500339 39070372 39970401 40590316 41030182 41110095
    40820023 40329969 39599949 39199975 39180096 38760254

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