Mesoscale Discussion 0437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021
Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112...
Valid 272032Z - 272230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112
SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and perhaps a damaging gust or
two continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0112, and is
expected to persist through the remainder of the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular-clusters are in progress across
the western half of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0112. While MRMS
mosaic radar data has shown storms potentially producing 1+ inch
diameter hail over the past couple of hours, individual
cells/clusters have demonstrated pulse-like behavior, with
relatively short life spans. Nonetheless, storms are developing in
an ambient environment characterized by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates and over 50 kts of effective bulk shear (per latest
Mesoanalyis). The severe hail threat is expected to persist with the
more intense longer-lived storms, and a damaging gust or two cannot
be ruled out. Convective coverage may also increase somewhat as
convective outflows locally enhance low-level convergence in spots.
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