• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0436

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 27 20:30:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272030
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272030=20
    TXZ000-272200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0436
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0330 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northwest into western north TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113...

    Valid 272030Z - 272200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest near-term severe threat, including the
    potential for 2-2.5 inch diameter large hail, should be focused with
    a supercell moving eastward.

    DISCUSSION...A robust supercell has developed over part of northwest
    TX in the past hour or so. This storm has recently turned right, and
    is moving generally eastward into western north TX. Mid to upper 60s
    surface dewpoints are in place ahead of this activity per recent
    surface observations from the West TX Mesonet. The presence of steep
    mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture, and surface
    temperatures warming into the 80s are all supporting 2000-3000 J/kg
    of MUCAPE per latest mesoanalysis estimates. This strong instability
    coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will likely foster
    continued storm intensity and organization with this ongoing
    supercell in the short term. Large hail appears likely, and very
    large hail upwards of 2-2.5+ inches in diameter may also occur given
    the very favorable thermodynamic environment and the presence of a
    pronounced TBSS from the KLBB radar. The kinematic environment
    appears somewhat favorable for a tornado with this supercell, as the near-surface flow is backed to southeasterly. However, the low-level
    wind profile from KDYX/KFDR is not overly strong, and 0-1 km SRH
    around 100 m2/s2 will probably support just a brief/isolated tornado
    threat in the short term. Depending on the continued eastward
    movement of this supercell, a small eastward extension of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 113 may be needed for a part of western north TX
    in the next hour or two.

    ..Gleason.. 04/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tVeh6uCfGR9VzZKSuxTdCyz1cDfMRH8yBWF-QNzbcKkS5M3mVLLc-GiSQIhMqXBiiDdwtpaZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

    LAT...LON 33830039 34050029 34249996 34179892 33809888 33599937
    33630033 33830039=20



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