• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0434

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 27 17:16:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271716
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271715=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-271945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0434
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 271715Z - 271945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Convective initiation is underway across portions of
    northeast Colorado. The threat for severe hail is expected to
    gradually increase through the afternoon and a Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Overcast skies are overspreading a post-cold frontal
    airmass across northeast Colorado, with surface temperatures varying
    in the lower 50s to near 60F, and with 40-50F dewpoints noted.
    Nonetheless, RAP forecast soundings suggest 100 mb deep rich
    low-level moisture is in place, and is being overspread by 8+ C/km
    mid-level lapse rates (evident via the 12Z DNR observed sounding).
    With continued diurnal heating and the approach of an embedded
    mid-level vort-max in New Mexico, an uptick in convective coverage
    and intensity is expected. Increasing mid-level wind speeds are
    fostering 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, suggesting that any
    storms that can mature may remain organized long enough to support
    the production of large hail. With modest low-level lapse rates in
    place, a couple damaging gusts also cannot be completely ruled out.
    As such, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pj6vqA2vXrJ13nykw_E7eoWAmJ4WpPG1j633RkixPo9slm3em_ynW14n4BzCYi45lacPJ64A$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38650418 38830453 39270469 39850482 40470499 40820490
    40910457 40980399 40940297 40680240 40200207 39710203
    39330215 39080231 38790269 38590304 38500363 38650418=20



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