• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0433

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 27 16:05:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271605
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271605=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-271830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0433
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1105 AM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern/central WI and the U.P. of MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271605Z - 271830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur with elevated storms over
    the next couple of hours. Watch issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A few supercells have recently developed over
    northeastern WI to the north of a surface front. These storms will
    likely remain elevated, and appear to be focused along a temperature
    gradient at 850 mb. The 12Z sounding from GRB shows the presence of
    steep mid-level lapse rates (8.3 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer),
    which is clearly supporting robust updrafts given the ongoing strong
    to severe convection. Even though low-level moisture is expected to
    remain quite limited north of the front, there is enough mid-level
    moisture combined with steep lapse rates aloft to support weak
    elevated instability. Large-scale forcing is somewhat nebulous, with
    this recent activity probably tied to a low-amplitude shortwave
    trough traversing parts of the Upper Midwest per recent water vapor
    satellite imagery. There is uncertainty with how much additional
    robust convection will develop in this regime, especially to the
    west of the ongoing storms into central WI. But, occasional large
    hail will likely remain a concern with the strongest storms in the
    short term across parts of northeastern WI and the far southern part
    of the U.P. of MI. Given expectations for a fairly isolated severe
    threat through the early afternoon, watch issuance is unlikely at
    this time.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 04/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p4GhNLbZb8tSq3ofvLmwVmrutJVRPW9YjLXwECN04deLsB4Q4ybDTIX31Z2TfrODKJLPwUAL$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 44699136 44959093 45678787 45738712 45648633 45278644
    44968676 44728732 44479129 44699136=20



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