• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0432

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 25 06:15:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250615
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250615=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-250845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0432
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0115 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021

    Areas affected...northern Florida and extreme southeastern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250615Z - 250845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail or wind remains possible
    in the near term, but the threat is expected to decrease with time.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently extends from an offshore MCS southwestward across far southeastern GA and into northern FL. These
    storms are well ahead of the cold front, and oriented close to an
    850 mb confluence line. Low 70s F dewpoints exist ahead of this
    line, the exception being near Jacksonville FL where cooler air and
    low-level inversion exist. The VWP from JAX shows ample deep-layer
    shear, along with some low-level veering with height. Both long
    hodographs and cool midlevel temperatures may support marginal hail,
    with a few strong gusts. A supercell cannot be ruled out as the
    deep-layer shear vector remains veered relative to the confluence
    line, with 150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH.

    As the shortwave trough exits the area, low-level winds will veer
    further, providing drying aloft and reducing lift. Therefore, while
    a few storms (some marginally severe) may persist over northern FL
    tonight, conditions do not appear favorable for further
    organization.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 04/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!svtB7NqTROoDmhazRhUTBOwgn8oyBaC0ve-RbW-MbvQ_Fyt8RnEo4H89lPtNJl28MDGfrVGo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29678113 29268319 29438337 29728357 29828365 30178290
    30528237 30888169 30948135 30698135 30288132 29958123
    29678113=20



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