Mesoscale Discussion 0431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Georgia and adjacent northern
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...
Valid 250342Z - 250515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111
SUMMARY...An isolated storm or two could still intensify, mainly
near and north of the northeastern Florida/Georgia border vicinity
through about 1 AM EDT, posing a risk for locally damaging wind
gusts or perhaps a tornado. An additional watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...There has been some continued veering of a fairly broad
850 mb jet to an increasing west-southwesterly component. Latest
Rapid Refresh suggests that the jet core is now in the process of
shifting east of the Georgia coast, but speeds remain on the order
of 40-50 kts, west-southwestward across northern Florida. One
associated confluent zone remains a focus for vigorous convective
development, including supercell structures, roughly along an axis east-northeast of Tallahassee, FL into the Brunswick, GA vicinity.
Aided by inflow of seasonably moist air emanating from the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico, beneath steep lower/mid tropospheric
lapse rates, activity still appears to be supported by moderately
large CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Further intensification
of one or two lingering storms, with perhaps some upscale growth,
still appears possible late this evening near/north of the
northeastern Florida/Georgia border vicinity, before large-scale
forcing diminishes further by around 05-06Z.
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