• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0431

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 25 03:43:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250343
    SPC MCD 250342=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0431
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1042 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Georgia and adjacent northern

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...

    Valid 250342Z - 250515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111

    SUMMARY...An isolated storm or two could still intensify, mainly
    near and north of the northeastern Florida/Georgia border vicinity
    through about 1 AM EDT, posing a risk for locally damaging wind
    gusts or perhaps a tornado. An additional watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...There has been some continued veering of a fairly broad
    850 mb jet to an increasing west-southwesterly component. Latest
    Rapid Refresh suggests that the jet core is now in the process of
    shifting east of the Georgia coast, but speeds remain on the order
    of 40-50 kts, west-southwestward across northern Florida. One
    associated confluent zone remains a focus for vigorous convective
    development, including supercell structures, roughly along an axis east-northeast of Tallahassee, FL into the Brunswick, GA vicinity.

    Aided by inflow of seasonably moist air emanating from the
    northeastern Gulf of Mexico, beneath steep lower/mid tropospheric
    lapse rates, activity still appears to be supported by moderately
    large CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Further intensification
    of one or two lingering storms, with perhaps some upscale growth,
    still appears possible late this evening near/north of the
    northeastern Florida/Georgia border vicinity, before large-scale
    forcing diminishes further by around 05-06Z.

    ..Kerr.. 04/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tQcT-gOmHxv9Q70f0hA6mMUm5AkZZQ5CFvJYAddDrwBq0aaJDCcn3Ic2AecqeCvBsIkKNhWc$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30918364 31298252 31508155 31018142 30588308 30508383

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