• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0431

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 25 03:43:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250343
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250342=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-250515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0431
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1042 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Georgia and adjacent northern
    Florida

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...

    Valid 250342Z - 250515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated storm or two could still intensify, mainly
    near and north of the northeastern Florida/Georgia border vicinity
    through about 1 AM EDT, posing a risk for locally damaging wind
    gusts or perhaps a tornado. An additional watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...There has been some continued veering of a fairly broad
    850 mb jet to an increasing west-southwesterly component. Latest
    Rapid Refresh suggests that the jet core is now in the process of
    shifting east of the Georgia coast, but speeds remain on the order
    of 40-50 kts, west-southwestward across northern Florida. One
    associated confluent zone remains a focus for vigorous convective
    development, including supercell structures, roughly along an axis east-northeast of Tallahassee, FL into the Brunswick, GA vicinity.

    Aided by inflow of seasonably moist air emanating from the
    northeastern Gulf of Mexico, beneath steep lower/mid tropospheric
    lapse rates, activity still appears to be supported by moderately
    large CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Further intensification
    of one or two lingering storms, with perhaps some upscale growth,
    still appears possible late this evening near/north of the
    northeastern Florida/Georgia border vicinity, before large-scale
    forcing diminishes further by around 05-06Z.

    ..Kerr.. 04/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tQcT-gOmHxv9Q70f0hA6mMUm5AkZZQ5CFvJYAddDrwBq0aaJDCcn3Ic2AecqeCvBsIkKNhWc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30918364 31298252 31508155 31018142 30588308 30508383
    30918364=20



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