• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0429

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 24 23:47:43 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1619308066-1996-2101
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 242347
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242347=20
    GAZ000-250145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0429
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0647 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 242347Z - 250145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential for strong surface gusts may remain somewhat
    marginal and/or isolated in the near term, but this could increase
    as upstream storms spread into the region later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A 40-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet is impinging on the southwestern flank of a convectively reinforced surface cold pool,
    across much of southern/eastern Georgia. As this enhances warm
    advection and associated lift of moist and moderately unstable air
    along the associated quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, one small,
    but organized, cluster of storms has emerged and is progressing
    north through northeast of the Waycross, GA area. This appears near
    the core of the most stable boundary layer air, and potential for
    damaging surface gusts to reach the surface remains unclear as the
    cluster continues into coastal areas south of Savannah, GA through
    01Z.

    However, as the southerly low-level jet noses northeastward this
    evening, ahead of the vigorous approaching mid-level short wave
    trough, it appears that the stable boundary-layer may undergo
    considerable modification. If another cluster of storms is able to
    organize upstream, near the intersection of the outflow reinforced
    boundary and a pre-cold frontal wind shift across southeastern
    Alabama into southwestern Georgia, then there may be increasing
    potential for damaging wind gusts as it overspreads a similar track
    as the preceding system later this evening.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sSrzRMQFNeK0txTsLB_SYgVr8XSdaYZpyfLaKHDIwEitnnXGquS1HQfmL3O1UJVg-xmb77kM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31858293 31938230 32108154 31938090 31108134 30788313
    31128365 31858293=20



    ------------=_1619308066-1996-2101
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1619308066-1996-2101--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)