Mesoscale Discussion 0426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021
Areas affected...portions of central into southern Alabama...western
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...
Valid 242040Z - 242215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #108. Large hail remains the primary threat with
the stronger, longer lived storms, though a couple damaging gusts
and perhaps a tornado cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #108 over the past couple of hours, with semi-discrete
cellular clusters and a couple of supercells noted across southern
AL. MRMS mosaic MESH radar data suggests that over 1.0 inch in
diameter hail may be occurring with the more mature supercell
structures, particularly in storms with 50+ dBZ echoes exceeding 30
kft. Near 70F dewpoints overspread by adequately steep low and
mid-level lapse rates are promoting 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across the
area, suggesting that vigorous updrafts may continue to support a
primary threat of large hail threat for at least the next few hours.
MOB and EOX VWPs depict over 200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, but with either
small-looping or nearly straight hodographs, suggesting that storm
rotation may be relatively confined to the mid-levels. However,
transient low-level rotation supporting a couple damaging gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado remains possible.
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