Mesoscale Discussion 0422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021
Areas affected...Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 106...
Valid 241605Z - 241730Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for all severe hazards will persist across
northwest Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia for the next
DISCUSSION...A west-east mesoscale convective system stretches
across portions of the northwest Florida Panhandle into southern
Georgia. To the south of this thunderstorm complex, warm, moist air
continues to stream northward off the Gulf of Mexico. This has
contributed to an increase in mixed-layer CAPE across the region on
the order of 400-600 J/kg the past two hours. Recent radar imagery
suggests this instability increase is being realized as evidenced by
an increase in thunderstorm updraft intensity and lightning activity
over the last hour. Strongly veering-with-height wind profiles
across the region have resulted in effective deep-layer shear on the
order of 60 knots per recent KTLH VAD data. The combination of
instability and deep-layer shear will maintain a severe threat for
at least the next few hours. Strong 0-1 kilometer shear values
around 40-50 knots and significant veering-with-height wind profiles
in the 0-3 kilometer layer resulting in 0-3 kilometer storm-relative
helicity values on the order of 500-700 m2/s2 suggest that a risk
for embedded meso-vortices will be possible with this MCS.
Additional Florida Panhandle counties may need to be eventually
added to Tornado Watch #106 as the ongoing MCS continues to slowly
move south into this afternoon.
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