• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0422

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 24 16:06:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241606
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241605=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0422
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1105 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

    Areas affected...Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 106...

    Valid 241605Z - 241730Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106 continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for all severe hazards will persist across
    northwest Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia for the next
    several hours.

    DISCUSSION...A west-east mesoscale convective system stretches
    across portions of the northwest Florida Panhandle into southern
    Georgia. To the south of this thunderstorm complex, warm, moist air
    continues to stream northward off the Gulf of Mexico. This has
    contributed to an increase in mixed-layer CAPE across the region on
    the order of 400-600 J/kg the past two hours. Recent radar imagery
    suggests this instability increase is being realized as evidenced by
    an increase in thunderstorm updraft intensity and lightning activity
    over the last hour. Strongly veering-with-height wind profiles
    across the region have resulted in effective deep-layer shear on the
    order of 60 knots per recent KTLH VAD data. The combination of
    instability and deep-layer shear will maintain a severe threat for
    at least the next few hours. Strong 0-1 kilometer shear values
    around 40-50 knots and significant veering-with-height wind profiles
    in the 0-3 kilometer layer resulting in 0-3 kilometer storm-relative
    helicity values on the order of 500-700 m2/s2 suggest that a risk
    for embedded meso-vortices will be possible with this MCS.

    Additional Florida Panhandle counties may need to be eventually
    added to Tornado Watch #106 as the ongoing MCS continues to slowly
    move south into this afternoon.

    ..Marsh.. 04/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!osY6q2DUOXcXxj2OwcojWlUF7GDMrzP9XTsxkSEOTiub1sa4L2mJ3eYNeunaTbDchysA2eOm$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30618710 31038610 31338363 31548238 31128233 30728260
    30478327 30318440 30438580 30618710=20



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