• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0421

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 24 14:10:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241410
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241410=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-241545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0421
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Georgia and far southern South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 241410Z - 241545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Well established squall line with embedded areas of
    rotation persists this morning across southern Georgia and northern
    Florida. A new watch will likely be needed downstream of Tornado
    Watch #106.

    DISCUSSION...A well established quasi-linear convective system, with
    embedded meso-vortices, continues moving east across southern
    Georgia this morning. The airmass feeding these storms is best
    characterized by mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg and
    deep-layer shear around 70 knots. This is sufficient to maintain
    QLCS organization for the next few hours as storms continue across
    Tornado Watch #106. The forward speed of this complex will result in thunderstorms exiting existing watches later this morning. The
    airmass downstream of ongoing watches is drier than farther west as
    low-level trajectories have slowed the return of better/richer
    moisture. A consequence of this is that thunderstorms will quickly
    outpace the return of the stronger instability. Despite this weaker instability, the well established nature of the thunderstorm complex
    combined with the strong deep-layer shear should compensate somewhat
    for the lack of better instability and a severe threat should
    persist across southeast Georgia through the morning hours.=20

    A new watch will likely be issued soon for portions of southeast
    Georgia and far southern South Carolina.

    ..Marsh/Hart.. 04/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vwf5P0VcMYeORt6aIJIhWlscpI04ZoslycOwsztX5_g-IY4RkSyIJpL-lqHtO2MUl_Tsnfed$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31868333 32308240 32258127 32208067 31858054 31168090
    30708127 30578192 30638266 30708334 31868333=20



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