• Pacific-NW: Surigae R47

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Apr 24 09:55:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 241200
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.47 FOR TS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 132.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
    ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS AND
    LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
    OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
    BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
    PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
    CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
    SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
    CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
    PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
    ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
    IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
    TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
    CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
    INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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