• Indian-S: TS Jobo W008

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Apr 24 09:54:00 2021
    WTXS31 PGTW 240900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    240600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 40.7E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 40.7E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    241800Z --- 7.4S 39.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    250600Z --- 7.0S 37.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    240900Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 40.3E.
    24APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
    NM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
    AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS
    FLARED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, REFORMING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
    THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC), INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT
    RELAXATION IN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF WEAK LOW
    LEVEL BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 240343Z SSMIS COLOR ENHANCED
    91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS WITH FAIR
    CONFIDENCE, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
    FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE. TC JOBO IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID-
    LEVEL STR. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10-
    15KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO ANY
    SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS THE PRESENCE OF A
    REGION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST, PROHIBITING THE RECENT
    FLARING CONVECTION FROM EXPANDING AND PERSISTING. JOBO IS EXPECTED
    TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF DAR ES SALAAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12
    HOURS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY INLAND AND
    QUICKLY DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
    LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
    242100Z.//
    NNNN
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