Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021
Areas affected...southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia and parts
of the Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 106...
Valid 241229Z - 241400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106 continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain possible this
morning, primarily from southeast Alabama into far southwest
DISCUSSION...A southwest-northeast oriented section of a squall line
is currently moving across southeast AL, and will soon move into GA.
Surface analysis shows 65 F + dewpoints near and south of this
squall line, with drier air currently over much of southern GA and
northern FL. The 12Z TLH sounding shows only a few hundred J/kg
MLCAPE with a 64 F dewpoint, but an impressive hodograph clearly
favorable for supercells given a surface-based effective parcel.
Continued 40-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow will aid theta-e
advection this morning ahead of the squall line, which may support a wind/tornado threat over GA in a few hours. Isolated severe reports
remain possible with the trailing portion of the line into the FL
Panhandle, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, but training
echoes may result in undercutting outflow.
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