• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0418

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 24 08:04:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240804
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240804=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0418
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0304 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Louisiana...southern Mississippi and
    Alabama

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...105...

    Valid 240804Z - 241000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104, 105 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts may be increasing,
    along with a threat of a brief tornado or two. Eastern parts of WW
    104 may need to be extended in time prior to expiration.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows gradually increasingly theta-e
    ahead of a consolidating line of storms extending from near New
    Iberia LA toward Hattiesburg MS. VWPs from the area show very strong
    flow just off the surface, with 55-65 kt in the lowest 2 km. Indeed,
    a gust to 55 kt was recently measured at New Iberia, indicating
    downward momentum transfer. Radar presentation over the past hour
    shows a better organized line of storms moving into southeast LA,
    thus damaging-wind potential may be increasing. Other strong cells
    persist along the warm front from southern MS into southwest AL
    where theta-e also continues to increase.

    0-1 km SRH on the order of 300-500 m2/s2 also indicates supercell
    potential, with attendant threat of brief tornadoes as storm mode
    becomes primarily linear.

    ..Jewell.. 04/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sVHqeajDoTO6j-h61PPLFqa_G5uai433O5FZgCulJa6nQOaOJdTQY1AXscT7Kn6mW3NWhI57$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 29939141 30359088 30719031 31098964 31388882 31628814
    31608766 31508747 31288732 30888724 30608741 30208786
    30188836 30108908 29948949 29829003 29849091 29839134
    29939141=20



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