Mesoscale Discussion 0418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021
Areas affected...southeast Louisiana...southern Mississippi and
Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...105...
Valid 240804Z - 241000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104, 105 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts may be increasing,
along with a threat of a brief tornado or two. Eastern parts of WW
104 may need to be extended in time prior to expiration.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows gradually increasingly theta-e
ahead of a consolidating line of storms extending from near New
Iberia LA toward Hattiesburg MS. VWPs from the area show very strong
flow just off the surface, with 55-65 kt in the lowest 2 km. Indeed,
a gust to 55 kt was recently measured at New Iberia, indicating
downward momentum transfer. Radar presentation over the past hour
shows a better organized line of storms moving into southeast LA,
thus damaging-wind potential may be increasing. Other strong cells
persist along the warm front from southern MS into southwest AL
where theta-e also continues to increase.
0-1 km SRH on the order of 300-500 m2/s2 also indicates supercell
potential, with attendant threat of brief tornadoes as storm mode
becomes primarily linear.
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