• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0416

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 24 06:00:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240600
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240600=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-240830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0416
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

    Areas affected...southern Mississippi and Alabama into the Florida
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 240600Z - 240830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will evolve eastward out of Louisiana into southern Mississippi next few hours, with a severe threat developing into
    Alabama and the Florida Panhandle later tonight. Damaging gusts and
    a couple tornadoes will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms currently exist from southern LA
    into southern MS, with a few cells now extending east of WW 104 near
    the MS/AL border. This zone is near a convectively enhanced warm
    front which is expected to lift north across far southern AL and the
    FL Panhandle after 08-09Z.

    Subtle midlevel height falls will occur tonight across the region,
    as a shortwave trough continues east across the Arklatex. Ahead of
    this feature, southerly 850 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will
    persist, aiding theta-e advection and possibly stalling the
    southward progress of the rain-cooled air. This may setup a
    favorable zone for storms to ride along the front, as Bunkers
    motions veer to 240 or 250 degrees tonight. As dewpoints rise into
    the 68-70 F range, effective SRH will also increase, providing a
    favorable environment for supercells, and/or organized bows capable
    of damaging winds with 65 kt effective deep-layer shear.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 04/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tTPQmJCjoKyocnR4R8hhbM64hcXArFEl2f9ljWhML9JNuIEOJYOFQ15FJlmglfHzXvOdXqAK$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30188857 30118945 30388968 30648955 30888930 31358931
    31478930 31578782 31618608 31508578 31308560 30898549
    30478559 30178592 30238628 30298677 30218731 30168807
    30188857=20



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