• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0415

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 24 04:20:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240419
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240419=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0415
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1119 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Oklahoma...northeast Texas...southwestern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103...

    Valid 240419Z - 240615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Although substantive further intensification appears
    unlikely, an organized cluster of thunderstorms may be accompanied
    by strong surface gusts occasionally approaching severe limits as it
    continues across the Red River Valley vicinity, toward the
    Ark-La-Tex region, through Midnight-2 AM CDT. Given the generally
    marginal nature of the continuing severe risk, a new severe weather
    watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of thunderstorms continues to
    propagate east-southeastward around 30 kt, across the Red River
    Valley vicinity. This appears focused along the leading edge of
    stronger cooling aloft (associated with the mid-level cold core of
    the vigorous short wave trough progressing east of the southern
    Rockies), supported by warm advection along a remnant frontal zone
    associated stronger daytime differential surface heating and
    boundary-layer mixing. While this frontal zone becomes gradually
    weaker with east-southeastward extent, inflow of moist air with
    moderately large CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg may maintain this
    activity into the 05-07Z time frame.

    Although activity appears generally rooted above a relatively cool
    near-surface layer stable layer, and is embedded within a rather
    modest deep-layer westerly flow regime, shear within the convective
    layer appears strong. And a 30-50+ kt rear inflow jet appears to
    have developed, with a few strong surface gusts approaching severe
    limits occasionally reaching the surface, based on Oklahoma mesonet observations.

    ..Kerr.. 04/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rv6YFkrbPbvqM1g8q7mfEK5ofp2Ds52ukHcN_fVnMvTOCkjbgPK_t0sN_45-GFOXyxLizN16$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34099593 34859571 34079395 32759509 33489676 33689645
    34099593=20



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