Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Louisiana into
southern Mississippi and adjacent southwestern Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...
Valid 240329Z - 240530Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.
SUMMARY...The evolving cluster of storms could still become better
organized with increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes through Midnight-1 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A large cluster of thunderstorms continues to develop east-northeastward, with a low-amplitude wave on the northern
periphery of mid-level subtropical ridging, beneath a strongly
divergent upper-level flow field. While this activity, in general,
has struggled to become well organized, new convective development
aided by lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is ongoing inland of
coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and will continue to gradually
merge into the larger-scale cluster.=20=20
Particularly on the southwestern flank of the evolving cluster,
there appears potential for stronger convection to consolidate and
become better organized during the next few hours. The latest Rapid
Refresh, supported by VWP data from Lake Charles and Slidell,
suggests that south-southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow is in
the process of strengthening across this region. As this continues,
enlarging low-level level hodographs, and perhaps a somewhat better
low-level moisture inflow off the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, may
finally contribute to convective intensification supportive of a
more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. The risk for
tornadoes may could also increase through 05-06Z, particularly with
the more discrete storms, perhaps including areas as far south as
the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity.
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