• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0414

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 24 03:29:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240329
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240329=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-240530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0414
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1029 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Louisiana into
    southern Mississippi and adjacent southwestern Alabama

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...

    Valid 240329Z - 240530Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.

    SUMMARY...The evolving cluster of storms could still become better
    organized with increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
    couple of tornadoes through Midnight-1 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...A large cluster of thunderstorms continues to develop east-northeastward, with a low-amplitude wave on the northern
    periphery of mid-level subtropical ridging, beneath a strongly
    divergent upper-level flow field. While this activity, in general,
    has struggled to become well organized, new convective development
    aided by lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is ongoing inland of
    coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and will continue to gradually
    merge into the larger-scale cluster.=20=20

    Particularly on the southwestern flank of the evolving cluster,
    there appears potential for stronger convection to consolidate and
    become better organized during the next few hours. The latest Rapid
    Refresh, supported by VWP data from Lake Charles and Slidell,
    suggests that south-southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow is in
    the process of strengthening across this region. As this continues,
    enlarging low-level level hodographs, and perhaps a somewhat better
    low-level moisture inflow off the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, may
    finally contribute to convective intensification supportive of a
    more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. The risk for
    tornadoes may could also increase through 05-06Z, particularly with
    the more discrete storms, perhaps including areas as far south as
    the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity.

    ..Kerr.. 04/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t-ncZ-lQGS_RuEjita8EWMYum6SoaXwm1mr0usJwE_xNsxZR4-CMP7jthcY8W2RXVXrYW5zo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 30699313 31489186 31478907 30728844 30049004 30699313=20



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