• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0413

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 24 00:44:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240043=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-240245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0413
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0743 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest Texas and Southwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

    Valid 240043Z - 240245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue to diminish over the next
    hour, but a wind/hail threat will likely persist into the late
    evening hours. A new watch may be needed to address this potential.

    DISCUSSION...The notable supercell with a history of producing
    tornadoes and large hail along the Red River Valley has become
    outflow dominant over the past 30 minutes and is growing upscale
    within a cluster of new convective development. Despite this, the
    evolving cluster continues to show a strong presentation in IR
    imagery and resides within a favorable environment featuring
    1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 knots of effective bulk shear. This
    should continue to support a hail and damaging wind potential for
    the next 1-2 hours. Given that these storms remain along/just north
    of a weak warm frontal zone where 0-1 km shear is maximized (per
    recent KFDR VWP observations), a brief tornado or two will remain
    possible in the near term. Continued upscale growth, along with a
    gradual increase in surface-based inhibition and weakening low-level
    shear in the vicinity of the surface low, should continue to reduce
    the tornado potential heading into the late evening hours and favor
    a wind/hail threat. A similar evolution is anticipated for a second
    developing cluster of storms further upstream along the OK/TX
    Panhandle border. A new watch, or a watch extension, may be
    considered to address the wind/hail threat by 01 UTC.

    ..Moore.. 04/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vo3yVA_jmEg1-ArRuTRW65PAnS2uRF5swgMTvmbzW41uvD0URSHF5DFHVLTI1DA4BA7ZYUwc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 34959997 34989929 34879856 34789778 34729657 34149620
    33409652 33409774 33559838 33719908 33909968 34110006
    34330019 34959997=20



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