• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0412

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 23 23:46:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232346
    SPC MCD 232346=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0412
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0646 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...Areas near/west of I-35 corridor of central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...

    Valid 232346Z - 240115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind is expected to
    become more isolated with a decrease in storm coverage through 8-10
    PM CDT. It is possible that parts of remaining valid portions of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98 could be replaced with a new severe
    weather watch, but this is not certain.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
    development is ongoing west of the Interstate 35 corridor. This
    activity initiated near the dryline, but moderate to strong
    southwesterly deep-layer mean flow is aiding eastward advection
    ahead of the eastward advancing surface boundary. North of the San
    Antonio area, this is tending to spread into an environment
    stabilized by prior convection. With the onset of boundary-layer
    cooling along the dryline, inhibition beneath relatively warm
    mid-level layers probably will begin to reduce convective coverage
    in the absence of stronger deep-layer forcing for ascent.=20=20

    The isolated cell south-southwest of San Antonio is developing into
    locally moderate to strong instability characterized by CAPE up to
    3000 J/kg. This activity might be slower to diminish, perhaps aided
    by forcing associated with a subtropical jet speed maximum.

    Otherwise, lift north/northeast of the weak triple-point low may
    become a focus for a consolidating cluster of storms, near/south of
    the Red River, to the northwest/north of the Dallas-Fort Worth
    Metroplex through 01-03Z.

    ..Kerr.. 04/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v0CHopqDreXaIKkg13S6KHTzxG1XfGYOYjHa6Hs2zCVPAYU7Vhpy64QYHwudvSH26RHFfmuC$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29529931 30709846 31549833 32519860 33349838 32799703
    30399747 28469846 28439958 29529931=20

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