• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0410

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 23 22:27:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232226=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-240030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0410
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0526 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

    Valid 232226Z - 240030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat will persist through at least 7 PM
    associated with a trio of discrete supercells, though large hail
    will remain the primary concern. To the northwest across the Texas
    Panhandle, developing thunderstorms will pose a wind/hail threat
    over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...A trio of discrete supercells have become established
    as they move off the dryline and toward the Red River. Radar and
    satellite trends suggest the more robust northern supercell is
    likely taking advantage of enhanced low-level helicity along and
    just north of a warm frontal boundary that is draped along the Red
    River. This cell has also exhibited notable right deviant motion,
    likely the result of a strengthening mesocyclone and propagation
    along the warm front/instability gradient to the east. This cell
    should continue on an eastward trajectory over the next 1-2 hours
    and will primarily pose a large hail threat. However, given ambient
    surface vorticity along the boundary (and backed easterly flow just
    north of the boundary), the tornado threat will persist. The
    neighboring storms to the south/southeast may intensify in the
    coming hours, especially if they can become rooted along the
    boundary. Upscale growth into a cluster is still expected later this
    evening after 00Z as storms continue to move east.=20

    To the northwest, thunderstorm development along the dryline has
    been underway with a few stronger updrafts noted. This activity is
    occurring on the northwestern periphery of richer boundary layer
    moisture where dewpoint remain in the 50s. Sufficient instability
    (around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) along with favorable effective bulk shear
    (35-45 knots) roughly off the dryline should continue to support
    semi-discrete storms capable of producing severe hail and wind.

    ..Moore.. 04/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pGA-gJMTgt5X5LsQvDWycgeycTUUZM8eRWnPJ_P6UfUmYphj137EmuehQCM3z6ZB30-DHoAI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...

    LAT...LON 33449978 33810008 34380024 34709988 34799934 34619882
    34439831 34199795 33849781 33529819 33419905 33449978=20



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