• Pacific-NW: Surigae R44

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Fri Apr 23 18:02:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 231800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.44 FOR STS 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    STS SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 130.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
    985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
    THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
    OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
    THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
    ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
    ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
    GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
    IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
    IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
    AROUND THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
    TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
    NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
    THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
    THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
    TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
    CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
    GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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