• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0409

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 23 20:29:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232029
    SPC MCD 232028=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0409
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...portions of west-central and north Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...

    Valid 232028Z - 232230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98

    SUMMARY...A few intense cells are possible the next 2-4 hours across
    parts of northern/west-central Texas. Large hail and damaging gusts
    are the main hazards expected with this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Additional thunderstorms are develop and/or
    strengthening just ahead of the eastward-advancing dryline this
    afternoon. This activity is moving into an airmass that has seen
    less thunderstorm activity early in the day compared to areas to the
    east and south, and where dewpoints have climbed into the mid to
    upper 60s. Increasing low level moisture beneath midlevel lapse
    rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km is resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
    supporting storm intensification. Furthermore, regional VWP data
    suggest shear profiles have continued to improve/strengthen which
    should allow for some better-organized cells. 20z experimental
    Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance also indicates a few intense
    cells are possible across the MCD area, including western portions
    of the Fort Worth metro area, over the next 2-4 hours, potentially
    producing large hail and damaging gusts.

    ..Leitman.. 04/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vF7oKK8HHyd95bCbSyv7WxWhWylz2L-EXcqSgtcXQp_1RHFeN_0drjXzzOJiCrFXrzvOZMJA$=
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    LAT...LON 31919933 32769901 33069876 33299824 33279762 33099736
    32839725 32529730 32149738 32029747 31649766 31219824
    31159877 31129904 31299931 31599932 31919933=20

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