• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0408

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 23 20:28:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232028
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232027=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-232230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0408
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0327 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...parts of western north-central TX and far
    southwestern OK

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

    Valid 232027Z - 232230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

    SUMMARY...A mesoscale area most favorable for a tornadic supercell
    will be near the adjacent portions of southwest OK/northwest TX
    during the 5-7 pm period. Large to giant hail is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Latest subjective surface mesoanalysis places a moist
    axis east of the dryline and extending from near Seymour and
    protruding north-northwest to near Childress, with lower 60s degree
    F dewpoints near and south of the OK border as of 325 pm. RAP
    forecast soundings show continued differential thermal advection
    occurring during the next few hours with 500 mb temperatures cooling
    from -16 deg C to -18 across this region. Additional heating and
    low-level moistening will contribute to a very unstable airmass
    within this confined mesoscale corridor (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE).=20
    Some low-level backing of surface winds is expected which will
    contribute to enlarging the hodograph during the 5-7 pm period. If
    an established quasi-discrete supercell manages to develop
    (increasingly probable at this point), a tornado risk may accompany
    it for an hour or so. Large to giant hail (1 to 3.5 inches in
    diameter) may also occur with the discrete surface-based updrafts.=20
    Further storm development and consolidation of cold pools into a
    cluster by early evening will likely diminish the supercell-tornado
    risk towards sunset.

    ..Smith.. 04/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tkEBMDXkXvSjmYvjJKmq4dD1qpH0CzRGyFVjOI5TyW72aB8uaMEvZ5CaGR8hlNK9ROG1Vfhy$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 33569969 34179994 34450025 34759999 34459925 34049879
    33699885 33459921 33569969=20



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