• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0407

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 23 17:44:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231744
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231743=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-231945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0407
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...portions of east/southeast Texas into western
    Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 231743Z - 231945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes,
    damaging gusts and hail are expected this afternoon and evening
    across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana.

    DISCUSSION...A strong low-level warm advection regime continues
    across east Texas into western LA early this afternoon. A warm front
    is draped northwest-to-southeast from central TX into southwest LA
    per 17z surface analysis. This front should continue to gradually
    lift northward over the next several hours. Dewpoints will increase
    to the mid 60s to low 70s F near and south of the front,
    contributing to increasing low-level instability. Forecasts
    currently increase 0-3 km CAPE to around 100-150 J/kg after 20z in a
    corridor near the warm front, with mixing ratios around 15-16 g/kg. Additionally, the front will further augment already favorable
    low-level wind profiles suitable for tornadoes. As a
    south/southwesterly low-level jet increases to 50+ kt toward 00z,
    some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments is possible.
    This could increase damaging wind potential. Even as storm mode
    evolves, low-level hodographs will remain favorable for mesovortex
    formation and a continuation of a tornado threat with eastward
    extent into western LA.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t8B5oJDI1gcoMmIfLiXWD1YQrDlbsu72NTSgeA8DPbs80cSq45f3mY2Pcwx2eGiPVQCBBcYB$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31409615 31959599 32149579 32279532 32339467 32299415
    32249381 32019325 31359265 30879249 30119245 29599276
    29629370 29349443 29099492 28999525 29059570 29179596
    29449613 29869626 31409615=20



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