• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0406

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 23 17:43:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231743
    SPC MCD 231743=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0406
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...southeast TX Panhandle...western north-central
    TX...far southwest OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 231743Z - 232015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected during the 230-400 pm
    period with storms subsequently maturing and becoming severe. A
    large to giant hail risk (1 to 3+ inches in diameter) may accompany
    the stronger storms, especially late this afternoon; coincident in
    general timing with the peaking of a tornado threat. Additional
    storm development and upscale growth will facilitate the transition
    to severe gusts becoming more common during the evening across
    south-central and central OK.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field over
    the TX Low Rolling Plains east of the Caprock escarpment, where a
    dryline is becoming better defined from north to south. Surface
    temperatures as of 1230 pm have warmed into the low 70s in Dickens
    County to the east of Lubbock and the northwestern rim of low 60s
    dewpoints arcs from 50 mi west of Abilene northeastward to near the
    Fredrick, OK WSR-88D location in southwest OK.=20=20

    Forecast soundings from 200 pm to 400 pm show the warming of the
    boundary layer to the east of the dryline at C11 (Seymour, TX) from
    the upper 60s to the mid 70s during the timeframe. As a result of
    the warming, convective inhibition is essentially eroded. The
    strengthening large-scale ascent associated with the approaching
    mid-level trough, will likely yield storms developing by mid
    afternoon across western north-central TX into far southwest OK.=20
    Strong effective shear and 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will favor
    supercells with the stronger/persistent updrafts. Large to giant
    hail may occur and possibly a tornado despite low-level shear
    relatively limited. The transition to upscale growth in the form of
    a cluster and eventual band is expected this evening as the storms
    move east across south-central and central OK.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 04/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tYtGeEGEGlACPwXArN_Eo1xfU3g4DD7m9MckxDTDQ9QDja-WV5ThB-oSzPm2RhCiPJZQwnte$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34390071 34950054 35010007 33929916 33399917 33139956
    33400007 34390071=20

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