• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0405

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 23 16:29:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231629
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231629=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-231800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0405
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northern and central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 231629Z - 231800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
    next couple of hours. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
    will be possible with this activity through the afternoon/evening. A
    severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 18z.

    DISCUSSION...An area of deepening, midlevel convection atop the EML
    across west-central TX is evident in radar and visible satellite
    imagery as of 16z. This is indicative of increasing large-scale
    ascent now spreading into western TX, in conjunction with continued
    warm advection/increasing moisture beneath the weakening EML. Over
    the next couple of hours, convection is expected to continue to
    increase with a slow erosion of the cap. This may result in a mix of
    elevated storms, transitioning toward surface-based convection
    through the afternoon.=20

    Very steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) and favorable,
    elongated hodographs will support large hail. PW values increasing
    to around 1.5-1.75 with northward extent, and increasing low level
    flow will also promote strong/locally damaging gusts.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oDBwmLcSAE0-4ijZFeX-rhHctSOKPCt0frJUppX4eDrBBirtj2Fz2C5qQm_pTFXNpgWtc-Hr$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29309832 29519883 29789911 30589935 31169932 31449930
    34059863 34319832 34409769 34349711 34259672 33769649
    33179633 32929633 30459625 29629661 29319716 29269775
    29309832=20



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