• Pacific-NW: Surigae R40

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Apr 22 16:38:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 221800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.40 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 21.3N, 127.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
    UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
    TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
    THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
    ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
    CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
    ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
    SYSTEM.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
    PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
    GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
    SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
    TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
    FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
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