• Indian-S: MTS Jobo W12

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Apr 22 16:37:00 2021
    WTIO30 FMEE 221901
    RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

    0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/16/20202021
    1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

    2.A POSITION 2021/04/22 AT 1800 UTC:
    WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 44.6 E
    (NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
    FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
    MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

    3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

    4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
    5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
    RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

    6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
    34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0

    7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
    8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

    1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
    12H: 2021/04/23 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
    TROPICAL STORM
    28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0
    34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

    24H: 2021/04/23 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
    28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

    36H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
    28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

    48H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

    60H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.9 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
    DEPRESSION


    2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
    NIL


    2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    T=CI=2.5

    OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS FORMED IN THE
    SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH PARTICULARLY COLD
    TOPS. HOWEVER, THIS EVOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE RELATED TO A
    POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTHENING MODERATE
    WESTERLY SHEAR. THE 1701Z AND 1815Z ASCAT SWATHS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF
    GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF A VERY ELONGATED AND
    ASYMMETRIC SURFACE CIRCULATION.

    IN TERMS OF TRACK, JOBO IS HEADING NORTHWEST, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
    THE SPREAD AMONG THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
    DECREASING.THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN SCENARIOS.
    JOBO SHOULD PASS TOMORROW BETWEEN 150 AND 300KM NORTH OF GRANDE
    COMORE. ON SATURDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM COULD LAND OVER
    TANZANIA NEAR DAR ES SALAM.

    DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE
    MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD FAVOR THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FAVORED BY
    ITS SMALL SIZE. THEREAFTER, JOBO SHOULD NOT FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
    AND SHOULD DISAPPEAR NEAR THE TANZANIAN COAST. THE SMALL SIZE OF JOBO
    INDUCES A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRESENT INTENSITY
    FORECAST.

    IN TERMS OF FORECAST IMPACTS, HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
    ISLANDS OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO IN THE MARGIN OF THE STORM, UP TO
    100 TO 200MM IN 24H, UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
    MODEST AROUND 60 KM/H.FOR TANZANIA, WITH THE PROBABLE DISSIPATION OF
    THE JOBO SYSTEM AT LANDING, THE IMPACTS COULD REMAIN LIMITED.
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