• Pacific-NW: Surigae R35

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Apr 21 16:31:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 211200
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.35 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 124.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
    IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
    NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
    ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD
    UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
    MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
    OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
    DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
    WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
    TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
    NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
    THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
    WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    INCLUDING GSM.
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