Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021
Areas affected...Far Southern NJ...Delmarva...Southeast VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 211622Z - 211815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible as storm develop along
the front this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far
eastern PA southwestward through south-central VA. Temperatures are
in the low 70s across southern NJ, increasing into the mid 70s
across south-central/southeast VA. Dewpoints follow a similar trend,
increasing from the upper 40s across southern NJ into the mid 50s
across southeast VA. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates are
fostering destabilization, despite this relatively modest low-level
moisture. This destabilization is evidenced by an increase in
cumulus across southeast VA as well as the deepening convection
along the front from northeast into south-central VA.
Surface winds are veering ahead of the front, limiting convergence
along this boundary but at least scattered storm coverage is still
possible. The presence of steep low-level lapse rates will augment
downdrafts, resulting in the potential for damaging wind gusts.
Overall coverage of these stronger gusts is in question, largely as
a result of uncertainty regarding overall coverage of storms.
Convective trends will be monitored closely and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be needed.
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