• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0403

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 21 16:23:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211623
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211622=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-211815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0403
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1122 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

    Areas affected...Far Southern NJ...Delmarva...Southeast VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 211622Z - 211815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible as storm develop along
    the front this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far
    eastern PA southwestward through south-central VA. Temperatures are
    in the low 70s across southern NJ, increasing into the mid 70s
    across south-central/southeast VA. Dewpoints follow a similar trend,
    increasing from the upper 40s across southern NJ into the mid 50s
    across southeast VA. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates are
    fostering destabilization, despite this relatively modest low-level
    moisture. This destabilization is evidenced by an increase in
    cumulus across southeast VA as well as the deepening convection
    along the front from northeast into south-central VA.

    Surface winds are veering ahead of the front, limiting convergence
    along this boundary but at least scattered storm coverage is still
    possible. The presence of steep low-level lapse rates will augment
    downdrafts, resulting in the potential for damaging wind gusts.
    Overall coverage of these stronger gusts is in question, largely as
    a result of uncertainty regarding overall coverage of storms.
    Convective trends will be monitored closely and a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be needed.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o9Fj5jequwlodM2RNFMt5LiRgvz4xNfVNxMBvP7EZgZQOnrhXM7le-NeyiumtUwzibMBrB79$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38807709 39697635 39897563 39337450 36817582 36737815
    38807709=20



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